New analysis from insurance company MS Amlin shows there is a 27% chance of at least one Category 4 or 5 hurricane making landfall in the 2026 season, down from 39% a year ago as strengthening El Niño dampens Atlantic storm activity.
“The likelihood of a Category 4 or 5 hurricane making landfall in the U.S. is lower than a year ago, but still far from negligible,” said Sam Phibbs, director of disaster research at Ms. Amlin. “It only takes one storm to turn a quiet season into a costly one for communities and insurance companies.”
“While El Niño is expected to dampen hurricane activity, its impact is partially offset by unusually warm tropical Atlantic waters, which creates favorable conditions for storms to form and intensify.”
The chance of a Category 4 or 5 hurricane making landfall in the Gulf of Mexico has almost halved, to 10 percent from 19 percent a year ago, according to Ms. Amring.
The insurer noted that Florida remains one of the most exposed coastlines, with the likelihood of a Category 4 or 5 hurricane making landfall falling slightly, to 14% from 19% last year.
“This outlook reflects the emergence of El Niño in the Pacific, which typically increases wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, making it more difficult for hurricanes to form and intensify. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration confirmed the emergence of El Niño in June and expects El Niño to strengthen in the second half of the year,” Ms. Amring explained.
The forecast, developed by disaster modeling and climate analysis specialist Reask, which uses its forecast-based hurricane data to calculate landfall probabilities, predicts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season with 11 named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes, compared with the long-term average of 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes and 3.2 major hurricanes.
Although the overall numbers are lower, Ms. Amring warned that reduced hurricane activity in the Atlantic does not necessarily mean reduced disaster losses.
“Last year, no hurricanes made landfall in the United States, despite higher risk forecasts,” the company added. “However, Hurricane Melissa quickly intensified into a Category 5 storm before hitting Jamaica, causing an estimated $8.8 billion in economic damage.”
Phibbs continued, “Where a storm makes landfall is often more important than how many storms form. If a major hurricane hits a highly exposed area, a quiet season can still cause significant damage.”
The insurer’s forecast also points to above-average tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific basin this year as El Niño strengthens.
Tropical storm risk forecasts that there will be 27 tropical storms, 18 typhoons and 11 severe typhoons in the basin, which is higher than the long-term average (26 tropical storms, 16 typhoons and 9 severe typhoons).
“The Atlantic may be less active, but risks are shifting rather than disappearing, with reduced U.S. hurricane activity while more active typhoon conditions are expected in the Pacific,” Phibbs concluded.
