While the 2026 hurricane season in the Atlantic basin is expected to be “somewhat below average,” the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) advises insurers to remain cautious as it only takes one major storm to topple loss expectations in a high-inflation environment.
Thirteen named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes are expected during the 2026 season, which begins June 1 and runs through November 30, according to a recently released forecast from the Colorado State University (CSU) Department of Atmospheric Science.
A typical Atlantic season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
“Currently, we are anticipating a moderate/strong El Niño at the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season,” said Dr. Phil Klotzbach, senior research scientist at Colorado State University and Triple-I nonresident scholar.
He continued: “Typically, El Niño reduces Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing vertical wind shear. Tropical Atlantic water temperatures are close to average. Therefore, we do not expect tropical Atlantic water temperatures to be a hurricane-enhancing factor as they have been in past years, when tropical Atlantic water temperatures were much warmer than average.”
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is above normal, with 13 named storms, five hurricanes and four major hurricanes, which are defined as winds reaching Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, according to Colorado State University.
The only U.S. landfall last year was Tropical Storm Chantal, which hit the South Carolina coast on July 6.
For reinsurers/insurers, Category 5 Hurricane Melissa highlighted the vulnerability of Jamaica and surrounding islands’ infrastructure to high-intensity wind events as it caused nearly $9 billion in damage to the country and killed 95 people across the Caribbean.
Despite the reduction in storm numbers, Colorado State University forecasts indicate that risks remain high along major coastal areas:
- 32% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880 to 2020 is 43%)
- 15% on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula (21% average from 1880 to 2020)
- 20% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas (average from 1880 to 2020 is 27%)
- Caribbean 35% (average 1880-2020 47%)
Triple-I chief executive Sean Kevelighan stressed the importance of insurance, although the forecast was “average” as the severity of individual events would be amplified by external factors.
“While last year was a relatively quiet hurricane season for the continental United States, it only takes one storm to tip you and your family into an active hurricane season, so now is the time to prepare as the start of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is less than two months away,” he said.
“Now is an ideal time for homeowners and business owners to review their insurance policies with an insurance professional to ensure they have the right amount and type of coverage so they are financially protected in the event of property damage due to wind or water.”
Keviligan added. “It also means exploring whether they need flood insurance that isn’t part of a standard homeowner, condo, renter or commercial insurance policy. Additionally, homeowners can make their homes more resistant to storms and heavy rainfall by installing roof tie-downs and good drainage systems.”
