Investment banking and research firm TD Cowen released a report titled: Our view on the E&S market, Review the latest developments in the excess and surplus (E&S) insurance industry.
TD Cowen pointed out in the analysis that the recent slowdown in E&S growth is mainly related to weak pricing conditions, especially in the property and casualty insurance field. Even so, TD Cowen observed that California, Florida and Texas experienced a 16% year-over-year increase in E&S filings in May 2026, broadly consistent with relatively strong underlying trajectories.
TD Cowen said that while competition in the E&S market had increased, with rates falling in some areas, particularly property, there was no clear evidence at this stage that significant volumes of business were returning to the recognized insurance market.
The company continues to expect the E&S segment to expand over the medium term, but at a more modest pace than in previous cycles, and expects near-term results to remain subdued until pricing pressures begin to ease.
In its section titled, May 2026 E&S Premium, TD Cowen cited preliminary data from the largest E&S stamp office states – California, Florida and Texas – which together account for nearly two-thirds of total E&S premium volume.
TD Cowen reported that in May 2026, premiums in the three states combined were down (6)% year-over-year. This reflects a 5% increase in premiums in California, offset by an (11)% decrease in premiums in Florida and Texas.
The company noted that this was an improvement on the year-over-year decline (10%) recorded in April 2026, although it was still consistent with a broader pattern of slower growth in the industry. According to TD Cowen, the three-month rolling average has turned down (1)%, reinforcing the view that the recent momentum has weakened compared with the previous period.
