Independent investment research firm Autonomous expects the second-quarter 2026 earnings season for U.S. property and casualty (P&C) insurers to focus on slowing commercial insurance pricing, the balance between profitability and growth in personal lines, and the ability of insurance brokers to maintain organic growth in a soft market environment.
The company expects most commercial insurers to once again post solid underwriting results in the second quarter, although losses from non-catastrophic weather events are still likely.
However, Autonomous believes investor attention will increasingly turn to the pace of pricing declines, with commercial insurance rates continuing to slow in the access, excess and surplus markets.
While the impact of lower pricing has yet to be fully reflected in underwriting profits, Autonomous noted that analyst forecasts for premium growth have become less optimistic since the start of the year. The company said it came after insurance companies reported interest rates fell by more than 30% in parts of the U.S. real estate market for large customers.
Autonomous believes current expectations for low-single-digit premium growth remain challenging and said any sign of weaker-than-expected top-line performance is likely to draw scrutiny. The company expects investors to focus on management’s commentary on growth prospects for the remainder of 2026 as insurers continue to prioritize underwriting discipline over growing market share. Autonomous specifically anticipates whether growth trends will differ across product lines and customer segments.
On the individual front, discussions continue to revolve around the trade-offs between maintaining underwriting margins and pursuing faster policy growth, Autonomous said. Progressive has previously said some consumers who buy insurance less frequently have started to return to the market after lower premiums encouraged more quote comparisons, the company noted. However, growth in policies effective in April and May largely followed a normal seasonal slowdown.
The combined ratios of two leading personal lines insurers continue to be well ahead of their long-term averages, Autonomous said, leaving investors keen to understand how much profitability the companies might be prepared to sacrifice to increase market share. The company believes catastrophic budget inflation is unlikely to have a material impact on second-quarter results and expects the personal vehicle market to continue to benefit from modestly favorable reserve developments.
Autonomous still prefers Progressive over Allstate, arguing Progressive can better protect underwriting profits while continuing to expand its current personal auto policies.
For insurance brokers, Autonomous believes market sentiment remains cautious as investors assess the impact of soft insurance pricing and broader economic uncertainty on expectations for mid-single-digit organic growth throughout the year. The company expects second-quarter share price performance to depend largely on whether brokerages can provide greater confidence that organic growth is starting to stabilize.
Autonomous noted that second-quarter comparisons will be affected by the peak renewal season for major property and continued declines in reinsurance rates at mid-year renewals of 15% to 20%. Against this backdrop, the company expects organic growth to slow year-over-year across much of the brokerage industry.
During earnings season, as valuations on smaller acquisitions begin to normalize, Autonomous expects investors to gain further insight into brokers’ outlook for the property insurance market and broader economic conditions through 2026, the sustainability of current operating margins and future capital returns. The company also expects businesses to face ongoing questions about the use of artificial intelligence, although it believes this remains a less important issue than market conditions and growth prospects.
