Global credit rating agency AM Best maintained a stable outlook for Guatemala’s insurance industry, citing economic growth and controlled inflation supporting market expansion.
The industry has demonstrated sustained premium growth over the past five years, with technical results benefiting from prudent expense control and sound pricing strategies.
According to the latest report “Market Segment Outlook: Guatemala Insurance”, the country’s GDP growth is expected to slow down in 2026, but will continue to be driven by private consumption and remittance inflows.
Additionally, while inflation is expected to rise, it is expected to remain below the 3% to 5% target range set by the Bank of Guatemala.
However, this prospect comes with increased uncertainty. External pressures such as global trade tensions, conflicts in the Middle East and stricter U.S. immigration policies could hamper exports and reduce remittance inflows.
“Guatemala’s insurance industry will remain well protected with premiums adequate and claims and acquisition costs stable through 2025, demonstrating the market’s ability to navigate different cycles in reinsurance,” said AM Best financial analyst Inger Rodriguez. “The industry remains well protected through comprehensive reinsurance programs run by reinsurers with higher security levels.”
The report states that AM Best expects the Guatemalan insurance market to continue to grow by 8-10% by 2026, with rated entities’ risk-adjusted capital at the strongest level.
The report also shows that competition in the country’s market remains fierce, with the three major insurance companies accounting for nearly 50% of gross premiums.
Investment performance remains positive but is limited by the conservative nature of the market portfolio, which is characterized by prudent asset-liability management and a short-term outlook.
In addition, rated insurers exceed the enterprise risk management standards of IFRS 17 and Solvency II, driven by the parent group in the adopting country.
A period of minimal catastrophe-related claims and increased participation by international reinsurers have added to ongoing weak market conditions.
However, the agency warned that El Niño’s new impacts on agricultural production and flood-prone areas remain a key factor for observations in the second half of 2026.
