Andy Burnham made his first 100 days as prime minister look rather easy.
Between entering 10 Downing Street on July 20 and October 27, he made a series of rather huge promises, like ending 40 years of “neoliberalism” and devolving power out of Westminster.
A raft of policies aimed at giving the public “breathing space” on the cost of living, such as capping bus fares and removing VAT from electricity bills, seemed to go down well with voters.
His personal approval ratings crept up, while Labour have established a clear lead over their rivals in the opinion polls.
Even last month’s Budget, which many at Westminster predicted would stop the Burnham bounce in its tracks, was so uneventful it fell off the news agenda within a matter of days.
But the PM’s honeymoon period may finally be coming to an end.
Looming on the horizon is a crucial summit at which Burnham will agree a deal to bring the UK and EU closer together than they have been since Brexit.
A deal will be signed which will cut red tape for food exporters, introduce an emissions trading scheme and improve youth mobility between Britain and the continent.
The prime minister – who last year said he wanted to see Brexit reversed in his lifetime – sees this as just the start, however.
He insists he will stick to Labour’s 2024 election manifesto pledges not to rejoin the EU single market, customs union or bring back freedom of movement in this parliament.
But his speech to this year’s Labour conference made it abundantly clear that after that, nothing is off the table.
At the moment, Labour MPs are on board with what the PM is saying, but that would change if he eventually comes out in favour of rejoining the bloc any time soon.
As one senior minister told HuffPost UK: “If that were to happen, some people in the cabinet would say ‘this far and no further’.”
Burnham will face another major challenge when it comes to his promise to reform the welfare system.
The government’s youth unemployment adviser, former cabinet minister Alan Milburn, will next week unveil his report on how to get the million young people not in education, employment or training (NEETs) into work.
Milburn favours introducing tough benefit conditions in an attempt to encourage them into the workplace, but his plans are expected to come with a hefty £6 billion price tag to get them off the ground.
Campaigners have already warned about the real-life consequences of stripping young people completely of sickness and disability benefits to overhaul the entire system.
Meanwhile, disability minister Stephen Timms will also report back on the future of personal independence payments (PIP) by the end of the year.
He previously admitted PIP is “not fit for purpose”, especially as the welfare bill is forecast to reach £431 billion by 2030-31.
Well aware that Starmer’s authority never recovered from his failed attempt to reduce the welfare bill by £5bn, Burnham has said he wants to bring costs down in “a Labour way” rather than through “crude cuts”.
But anything seen as making life harder for those on benefits will cause a huge split among Labour MPs.
One told HuffPost UK: “I don’t see how you can credibly go into an election without cutting welfare spending.
“But it can’t be done in a blunt instrument way. It’s also much harder for many of the new regime to make the ‘pull together’ argument if they bring forward something unpopular.”
Another backbencher said: “We simply have to reform the system, and accept that does mean some constituents will be forced into behaviours they don’t want to accept – be it training or work.
“Andy’s about to find out that he’s not the Messiah.”
The prime minister set up another problem for himself on his first day in Downing Street when he declared he would unveil his 10-year plan for the country by the end of the year.
Burnham confirmed last week that will be pushed to next year, triggering significant backlash and accusations that he was kicking the can down the road.
The under-pressure PM then unexpectedly announced the strategy would be unveiled just before MPs go on their Christmas break on Wednesday amid speculation that it will not be anywhere near radical enough.
He will also come under pressure soon to flesh out his plans to reform the social care system – something he has put at the very heart of his agenda but which has confounded governments for decades.
Despite trying to focus on domestic affairs, Burnham is, like his predecessors, always at the mercy of international events no matter how many times he vows to address the cost of living.
The Iran war has pushed fuel prices up around the world and the Bank of England hiked up interest rates to 4% this week as a result – the first increase in more than three years.
Household energy bills are set to jump up in January by £400, taking the annual average bill to £2,100.
That rather puts into perspective Burnham’s attempt to ease the cost of living by knocking £100 off the energy bills of those in council tax bands A to D.
Britain is not directly involved in the Middle East conflict but is still paying the price of the conflict as Iran squeezes oil supplies in its conflict with the US.
Of course, the person behind that war presents another ticking time bomb for Burnham: Donald Trump.
The US president used the first half of his second term in office to pressure Nato allies over defence spending, threaten Greenland, attack Iran, support Russia over its invasion of Ukraine and invade Venezuela.
After the Republicans’ devastating defeat in the US midterm elections, Trump’s domestic power will likely be curtailed by the Democrats once they take up their new positions in Congress in January.
That means the president might spend the next two years trying to dominate internationally.
While Burnham is on reasonably good terms with the president right now, there’s no telling what tactics Trump might deploy to intimidate his international allies just to flex his muscles.
The president’s former press secretary, Anthony Scaramucci, told HuffPost UK that if the Trump administration start “trying to push” Burnham around, he should go “elbows up on him” – but will he actually be able to do that?
The mountain of problems facing the prime minister is only rising. He’s promised the world to Brits – but, when push comes to shove, will he be able to deliver?
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