Westminster loves nothing more than a bit of groupthink.
A settled view on a particular issue can quickly become established fact in SW1, even if there is plenty of evidence that it may be wrong.
The most recent example is the growing belief that two-party politics will return in time for the next general election.
This is not an outlandish idea, given the most recent trend in the opinion polls.
It is undeniable that Labour has enjoyed a Burnham bounce since the former mayor of Greater Manchester replaced Keir Starmer as party leader and prime minister.
A crossover point was reached earlier this week when, for the first time in 18 months, Labour overtook Reform UK in the poll of polls.
This has coincided with a steady decline in support for Reform amid the ongoing controversies over the financial arrangements of both Nigel Farage and his party.
At the same time, Kemi Badenoch’s Tories have been enjoying a modest uptick in support, while the Green Party have also gone into reverse following a series of mis-steps by their leader, Zack Polanski.
A YouGov poll seemed to confirm this trend on Thursday when it revealed that Reform and the Greens have fallen to their lowest favourability ratings to date.
Some political commentators have therefore concluded that the next election will once again be a straight fight between Labour and the Conservatives.
However, leading pollsters have told HuffPost UK that it is far too early to assume that British politics will simply return to the way it has always been for most of the last century.
Indeed, Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said a return to two-party politics “feels like something of an impossibility”.
He said: “In almost all opinion polls conducted since Andy Burnham became Labour leader, five parties have achieved 10% or higher.
“The top two – more often than not, Labour and Reform UK – tend to combine for around 50% of the overall vote share.
“This is a far cry from recent general elections, especially 2017 where the Conservative and Labour combined for a whopping 82% of the overall vote.
“Of course, if British politics has taught us anything over the last few years, it’s that the fortunes of political parties can change very quickly, so you can never rule a return to two-party politics out.
“For now, only the Greens feel at risk of losing ground, probably to a rejuvenated Labour Party, but Reform UK don’t feel like they’re going anywhere while Nigel Farage is at the helm.”
With Farage certain to return as MP for Clacton next Thursday with a thumping majority – albeit having only defeated Count Binface and a variety of other minor political figures – the chances of him shuffling off the political stage appears remote.
Indeed, the signs are there that the Reform leader is preparing to come out fighting in an attempt to wrest back the political momentum from Burnham.
Keiran Pedley of Ipsos UK said “we should be careful not to overstate the return of two party politics”.
“Reform are still ahead of the Conservatives for now,” he pointed out. “The Greens and Lib Dems have a significant presence in some parts of the country and nationalist parties are in power Scotland and Wales.
“It may well come to pass that the next election ends up as a mainly Labour vs Conservative affair, but we should caution against jumping to that conclusion too soon.
“To announce the return of two party politics having declared it dead a few months prior feels somewhat premature.”
The Tories’ mini-renaissance under Badenoch, who has won praise for her performance as leader in recent months, threatened to come off the rails this week, however.
Her decision to stand by a former neo-Nazi chosen to stand as a Conservative council candidate in Somerset sparked a furious backlash and baffled many senior Tories.
Joshua Bonehill-Paine eventually stood down, but was appointed an adviser on anti-radicalisation by Badenoch, a decision which led to fresh outrage.
This was followed by the announcement that the party would evict 230,000 non-EU foreign nationals from social housing, and ban newcomers from gaining such tenancies.
Coming on the back of Badenoch’s decision to remove the party whip from Gavin Barwell and block the likes of Grant Shapps from standing as candidates, it seems clear that she wants to take votes from Reform.
Moderate Tories believe she is making a huge mistake.
One senior figure told HuffPost UK: “Her strategy appears to be to hope that Reform implodes/Farage walks away and then pick up the pieces.
“The reality is that there’s a solid populist vote of 20% that will be very hard for the Tories to reach and the cost of doing so would be to alienate the majority of the electorate. With Labour moving leftwards on the economy, a big opportunity is being lost.”
Cameron Garrett, deputy director of research at the More in Common think-tank, said: “Our politics is increasingly volatile, and it’s too soon to be heralding a return to the two-party system.
“Kemi Badenoch’s personal approval rating has risen dramatically in recent months, but it has yet to lift her party’s fortunes. And while Burnham has seen a bounce, it’s too early to tell whether it will last.
“Voters will need to see real, tangible change before they’re willing to return to the political mainstream for good.”
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