Reinsurance broker Gallagher Re’s Natural Catastrophes and Climate Report for the First Half of 2026 shows that global insured losses from natural catastrophe events totaled US$46 billion in the first half of 2025, down from US$84 billion last year and 28% below the 10-year average of US$64 billion.
In the first half of 2026, losses from natural cat incidents were $46 billion, the lowest total since 2018. Interestingly, the broker found that for the fifth consecutive quarter, no single insured cat lost more than $10 billion in the first half of this year.
In fact, in the first half of 2026, only 11 events resulted in insured losses exceeding $1 billion, compared with the 10-year average of 16 events. A total of US$30 billion in economic loss events occurred globally, compared with a 10-year average of 33 events.
Approximately $26 billion, or 57% of total insured cat losses during that period, was attributed to severe convective storms, which remain the costliest disaster in North America, Gallagher said.
Economic losses also fell to $142 billion in the first half, 10% below the 10-year average.
While the below-average numbers reflect continued healthy loss activity from insurers and reinsurers, Gallagher Re noted that global risks continue to evolve, highlighted by unprecedented heat in early summer in Europe and the emergence of El Niño in June.
Gallagher Re noted that forecasters predict there is a 97.4% chance that 2026 will be among the five warmest years on record, as several countries in Europe set record high temperatures during a prolonged heat wave.
Of course, El Niño is typically associated with reduced Atlantic hurricane activity, but according to Gallagher-Ray, “the phenomenon shifts risk rather than eliminating it entirely,” and history shows that extremely dangerous and destructive storms can occur during El Niño.
Steve Bowen, Chief Scientific Officer at Gallagher Re, commented: “While overall loss figures get most of the attention, we continue to observe meaningful weather signals and changes in long-term climate patterns that are having a greater impact on the world. The occurrence of one of the strongest El Niño phases in modern records may not bring record-breaking losses, but the social impact is considerable. A strong El Niño combined with ongoing atmospheric and ocean warming will only further impact how risks develop in different parts of the world.”
“The record-breaking high temperatures observed in parts of Europe in May and June this year are yet another reminder that extreme weather can cause significant humanitarian risks and impacts without causing widespread material damage. The property sector of the insurance industry continues to closely monitor how heat-related claims are causing material damage through the degradation of structural foundations, as well as the additional pressures associated with disruption to commercial operations.
“At the same time, the arrival of El Niño may mean a reduction in the frequency of Atlantic hurricane activity in 2026, but it does not eliminate the possibility of landfall. This phenomenon should instead reinforce our need to look beyond seasonal storm counts and focus on how risk varies geographically. For insurers, reinsurers, businesses and governments, resilience depends not only on understanding how much risk exists, but also on where risk profiles are likely to evolve.”
