Munich Re meteorologist and climate expert Anja Rädler said the outlook for the 2026 cyclone season is clearer than in recent years, with El Niño expected to cause a slightly weakened Atlantic hurricane season while increasing the likelihood of a more active typhoon season in the western Pacific.
However, Radler said even in quieter seasons, there are always “very serious” events that cannot be predicted.
“To minimize damage, the focus must be on prevention. History shows that even one storm can cause huge damage,” she added.
Munich Re said that based on average estimates from major research institutions, about 12 or 13 named cyclones may form in the tropical North Atlantic.
About five or six of those could develop into hurricanes, including two potentially major hurricanes with winds in excess of 110 mph, according to Global Reinsurance.
On the other hand, conditions in the northwest Pacific are reportedly favorable for typhoon formation, which is more likely to hit Japan, Greater China or South Korea.
“This is due to the natural climate pattern in the Pacific, ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation), which affects the frequency and severity of weather disasters in many parts of the world through its long-term effects,” explains Munich Re.
The company continued: “El Niño is expected to begin this summer, bringing unusually warm sea surface temperatures to the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
“By the end of the year, this phenomenon is likely to intensify into a rare ‘super El Niño’ – a term used to describe an event in which equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies exceed 2°C, increasing the potential global impact.”
Anja Rädler, meteorologist and climate expert at Munich Re, commented: “Unlike in previous years, the outlook for this cyclone season is relatively clear: taking into account the El Niño phenomenon, we expect a slightly weaker hurricane season and a stronger typhoon season.
“However, even in calmer seasons, there are always very serious events that cannot be predicted. To minimize damage, the focus must be on prevention. As history shows, even a single storm can cause huge damage.”
