Swiss Re Research Institute, a subsidiary of the global reinsurance company, said it expects real growth in global non-life insurance premiums to slow to 0.6% in 2026, reflecting competitive pricing conditions and slowing economic momentum.
Non-life insurance premium growth has slowed well below the long-term trend of 3.6% (CAGR 2015-2024). Swiss Re Institute noted that developed markets are driving an economic slowdown, while emerging markets remain relatively resilient.
“The longer inflationary pressures from the conflict in the Middle East persist, the greater the risk that their impact will affect repair, replacement and liability costs, thereby partially offsetting downward pressure on pricing. This suggests that the current cycle may be shallower than past soft markets, and insurers may reprice more sharply if large losses, inflation and capital signals worsen more than expected,” the firm said.
Despite this, Swiss Re Institute confirmed that non-life insurance companies will remain profitable, forecasting a return on equity of 11.4% in 2026, down from a peak of 14% in 2025, before falling further to 7.7% in 2028. Rising investment returns are expected to provide a major buffer against downturns in the underwriting cycle.
Meanwhile, life insurance growth is expected to remain strong at 2.3% in 2026. Higher yields continue to support savings and annuity businesses, while emerging markets benefit from favorable demographics, regulatory reform and increased insurance penetration.
The profit outlook for life insurance companies also remains positive, with higher reinvestment yields continuing to support investment income.
The Swiss Re Institute also highlighted that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is slowing economic activity, exacerbating inflation and reinforcing the shift towards a more decentralized global economy. Against this backdrop, real growth in global insurance premiums is expected to slow from 3.9% in 2025 to 1.3% in 2026.
In addition, Swiss Re Research Institute predicts that global inflation will average 4.0% in 2026, about 1 percentage point higher than pre-conflict expectations, while global GDP growth may slow to 2.5%.
Interest rates are likely to remain higher for longer as investors demand greater compensation for inflation, fiscal and geopolitical risks.
At the same time, rapid investment in AI infrastructure is providing an important offset to the drag of supply shocks.
The Swiss Re Institute estimates that capital expenditures on artificial intelligence by hyperscale enterprises (that is, technology companies building large-scale Internet infrastructure) will reach US$750 billion (nominal value) by 2026, contributing approximately 0.2-0.3 percentage points to US economic growth. These assets have increased the need for protection of property, engineering, cyber, liability and business interruption insurance, reinforcing the importance of global reinsurance/insurance capabilities.
Ivan Gonzalez, CEO of Swiss Re Corporate Solutions, said: “As the global economy and supply chains become more fragmented, there is increasing demand for specialized solutions that support international trade, investment and business continuity. At the same time, the artificial intelligence boom is driving unprecedented infrastructure investment. The total asset value of some of the largest artificial intelligence data centers before the technology is installed now exceeds 200 million Billions of dollars, bringing with them significant construction, operational and accumulation risks. These interconnected risks require solutions that go beyond traditional insurance and combine risk engineering, alternative risk transfer and financing to help companies achieve greater return on investment.
