A new Goldman Sachs analysis of catastrophe events in the second quarter of 2026, based on data from insurance brokers and catastrophe modeling firms, estimates global insured catastrophe losses at about $24 billion, with major insurers expected to absorb much of the impact.
The second-quarter 2026 estimate is $24 billion, about 65-70% of the five-year quarterly average, according to the company.
By region, it represents approximately 85-90% of the five-year average catastrophe loss burden in the United States ($21 billion), while being well below the international average catastrophe loss burden ($3 billion).
Goldman Sachs observed: “International loss activity remains favorable as storm and flood activity in Europe remains limited in the first half of the year, which has historically been the main driver of insured losses outside the United States.”
Meanwhile, in the United States, the catastrophe load for the second quarter of 2026 almost entirely reflects losses from severe convective storms (SCS).
Goldman Sachs commented: “We expect major insurers to bear the brunt of loss events this quarter, as the size of each event is less significant and SCS losses have historically been retained by major insurers.”
The company noted that based on Gallagher Re’s insured loss estimates, the most significant natural catastrophe losses are expected to stem from a series of severe weather events.
These include the South China Sea outbreak in mid- and late April, as well as the events from April 23 to 29. Additionally, Gallagher Re estimates that the SCS activity from June 1 to 17 will cause cumulative losses in the billions of dollars.
As mentioned earlier, international loss contributions remain relatively limited.
Goldman Sachs highlighted that the Philippines earthquake is likely to be one of the largest insured natural catastrophe events outside the United States, while losses from the Venezuelan quake are expected to have a limited impact on U.S. insurers and reinsurers due to sanctions, with broker Aon recently noting that insured losses are expected to account for only a small portion of the broader economic loss total.
