Despite strong 2025 results for Europe’s four major insurers, Allianz, AXA, Generali and Zurich, Moody’s Ratings warned that their growth momentum could slow as key growth drivers fade and geopolitical and economic risks start to impact earnings.
The peer group reported consolidated net profit of 32 billion euros in 2025, an average year-on-year increase of 14%, and Moody’s believes the group’s profitability is very strong.
The peer group also reported operating results to grow by an average of 9% through 2025, supported by strong contributions from all major business lines, with property and casualty insurance being the key earnings growth driver.
Moody’s explains: “All insurers continue to show strong diversification across business lines, with Allianz, AXA and Zurich deriving the majority of their profits from property and casualty insurance, while Generali’s earnings profile remains more balanced between property and casualty and life insurance.”
The rating agency went on to say that “contributions from segments not related or less related to insurance remained broadly stable compared to the previous year, with Allianz’s asset management business contributing 19% of operating results in 2025, Generali’s wealth and asset management business contributing 15%, and Zurich’s farmers business contributing 25%.”
“AXA’s asset management contribution is more limited at 2%, reflecting that the contribution only applies to the first half of the year, before the sale of AXA IM to BNP Paribas on July 1, 2025.”
Moody’s said the peer group also continues to benefit from geographic diversification, which remains a key advantage.
The ratings agency continued, “Allianz and AXA expanded operations in their respective domestic markets, while Generali and Zurich were broadly stable.
“All insurers also maintain a significant footprint across Europe. Zurich has a stronger presence in the United States than peers. In addition, commercial lines, reinsurance and trade credit insurance are inherently global businesses, providing further diversification.”
While these insurers remain well-positioned to support further earnings growth going forward, Moody’s expects this momentum to slow as several key drivers begin to fade.
At the same time, the ratings agency warned that geopolitical tensions and a more uncertain macroeconomic backdrop could start to impact earnings, potentially exposing the group to greater volatility.
Moody’s concluded: “The four insurers highlighted that they continue to expect further improvement in margins and higher insurance revenues, which will lead to higher earnings in the sector.
“However, we believe the outlook is inherently more cautious than a year ago, which is also supported by additional prudential provisions being made by insurance groups, even if underlying claims developments are less favorable, for example if relatively mild natural catastrophe claims in 2025 return to long-term averages, this could also help reported claims ratios.
“Additionally, retail pricing momentum is likely to continue to slow in 2026 as it becomes more difficult to price ahead of claims cost trends.
“While some within the group believe they can still achieve reasonable price increases in 2025 as local peers have more work to do on pricing, competition is likely to intensify now that the market has returned to underwriting profitability, as seen in the UK last year.
“In the commercial space, pricing momentum is inconsistent across business lines and target segments; however, overall strong improvement is unlikely.
“Finally, the Iran conflict could lead to claims on some specialty products, to which all companies in the group except Generali have modest exposure. Depending on how long the conflict and energy price distortions last, this could lead to slower economic growth and higher inflation.”
