Andy Burnham Vs Kemi Badenoch: Can The Conservatives Match Labour’s Big Strategy?

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It was the week when Andy Burnham fired the starting gun on the next general election campaign.

We may not yet know when exactly the prime minister will decide to go to the country, but the policy platform on which he intends to stand is clear.

A vote for Labour will mean an end to the pensions triple lock as we know it, a new national care service, a change to the voting system and even the possibility of the UK rejoining the European Union.

“I won’t pretend some of this won’t be difficult,” Burnham told the Labour Party conference in Liverpool. “I accept I may pay a political price.

“But someone has to go through the pain barrier and rip the plaster off.”

It remains to be seen exactly how much of a price the PM ends up paying, but all the evidence so far would suggest the public like what they are hearing.

From being in the doldrums under Keir Starmer just three months ago, Labour are ahead in almost every opinion poll – a far cry from the days when Reform UK were comfortably ahead.

As Nigel Farage’s party continues to falter, Kemi Badenoch has the chance at this week’s Conservative conference in Birmingham to stake her claim to be the pre-eminent political leader on the right of British politics.

To do that, she needs to convince a sceptical public that she also a plan to change the country, and the ability to see it through.

James Starkie, a former Tory adviser and partner at the consultancy firm 5654 and Company, told HuffPost UK that Badenoch much pick up the gauntlet Burnham has thrown down.

He said: “Most of the country, no matter who they vote for, believe the country is screwed and needs radical change.

“Burnham’s gone out there and planted a flag in the ground and said I’ll make some bold changes, which has left the Tories and Reform looking like they’re now defending the status quo, which in this case is the triple lock, the voting system and being outside the EU.

“He looks like the guy who’s doing stuff. Maybe people don’t love what he’s saying, but a lot of people will be thinking ’at least he’s thinking big and trying to change things’.”

Starkie compared Burnham’s approach to that taken by Boris Johnson, who also took over as prime minister two years after his party had won an election.

“Burnham is making himself the change candidate, like Boris did in 2019,” he said. “Boris said he represented massive change and he won. I think Burnham is trying to do the same thing by saying ‘I’m not Keir Starmer, here’s how I’m going to change the country’.

“Kemi can absolutely criticise what he’s announced, but she can’t only do that because then it sounds like she just wants things to stay the same. She needs to come up with her own big ideas to change the country, otherwise she’ll get left behind.”

Andy Burnham at the Labour conference last week.

“It’s important at conference for Kemi to focus on the issues of now, because what was very clear in Burnham’s speech is that he’s all about what’s going to happen tomorrow,” the MP said.

“At conference it’s about focusing on the issues people are facing right now – huge energy bills, rising taxes, concerns about Russia and the lack of investment in defence.

“What I think it Burnham’s Achilles Heel is this commitment to welfare. Public opinion on that has moved and people are not happy with huge welfare spending. Those are the issues she needs to focus on.”

One senior Tory source said the PM has taken a huge gamble by deciding to reopen the Brexit debate, despite vowing not to when he was running to be MP for Makerfield in June.

“Most of his own cabinet seem unhappy about that,” the insider said.

“Kemi’s strongest point is the fact Burnham said next to nothing on defence but decided electoral reform was a major point of discussion instead,” they said.

“She needs to focus on the economy and not get drawn into mentioning small boats, Reform or any of that nonsense. She’s got a chance to make a good speech as long as she doesn’t get all sarky and chippy.”

There was some some good news for Badenoch in the YouGov pre-conference, though.

With speculation of an election possibly taking place as soon as next spring, however, it’s clear that Badenoch needs to start improving those numbers very soon.

Political consultant and former Conservative adviser Laura Emily Dunn said this year’s party conference is “a key moment for Kemi”.

“This is the big opportunity to set out her vision for the country and set out the clear dividing lines between a Labour and a Conservative government,” she told HuffPost UK.

“These are the three planks that will define the next few months and the next election campaign – the economy, welfare and defence.

“Burnham may have given Labour and the government a temporary bounce but the rubber is now starting to hit the road, with rising energy costs, everyday living pressures and questions about the impact of AI shaping daily debate.

“Kemi should continue to hit Burnham hard on these.”

Labour’s conference last week could hardly have gone better for Andy Burnham who, after the Starmer disaster, has got his party back in the game.

As the Tory tribe gathers in Birmingham, Badenoch faces the daunting task of showing voters that she, and her party, are also worth another look.

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