Swiss Re’s annual report shows that the global reinsurance industry is expected to continue to benefit from a generally favorable external operating environment in 2026, with global economic growth stabilizing at around 2.8% (largely consistent with 2025), and inflation to slow further despite short-term fluctuations.
The reinsurer noted that through 2025, the global economy has shown resilience amid rising trade tensions and heightened policy and geopolitical uncertainty.
With this in mind, Swiss Re said it and its peers benefited from global economic growth, a strong labor market, rising long-term government bond yields and strong financial market returns.
Demand for insurance and reinsurance is reported to remain strong in 2025, although real global insurance premium growth has slowed to an estimated 3.9% after reaching a decade-high 5.7% in 2024.
Swiss Re said this reflected a shift from post-pandemic strength to a more sustainable growth path.
The firm’s report added that while financial markets should benefit from continued economic expansion in 2026, rising asset valuations and ongoing policy and geopolitical uncertainty could drive cyclical market volatility and pose risks to the overall macro outlook.
Swiss Re’s annual report continued: “Equities are expected to post positive returns in 2026, while high-quality investment grade credit spreads are expected to remain tight.
“Globally average real growth in insurance premiums is expected to slow to around 2.0% between 2026 and 2027, reflecting a return to more sustainable expansion after strong growth over the past two years.
“Stable long-term bond yields will continue to provide reinvestment tailwinds for insurers’ fixed income portfolios, supporting profitability in the property and casualty insurance industry.”
As for the property and casualty insurance industry, Swiss Re expects that the market will encounter a cyclical low in 2026-2027. As competition intensifies, global property and casualty insurance premiums will actually increase by 1.1% on average.
Swiss Re added: “Structural drivers such as increased natural catastrophe risk due to urbanization and the concentration of assets in disaster-affected areas, rising liability costs, and AI-related investments such as data centers, new hardware and energy infrastructure should support demand in the medium term. Underwriting discipline and strong investment income are expected to continue to support overall profitability.”
In the L&H sector, industry growth is expected to remain strong, with life insurance premiums expected to grow at an average annual real rate of 2.8% in 2026-2027.
The global reinsurer’s report concluded: “Protection business is expected to grow at a similar pace and above historical averages against a backdrop of rising consumer risk awareness. Firming long-term bond yields, along with a partial normalization of excess mortality trends towards pre-pandemic levels, should continue to support profitability over the next two years.”
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