David Flandro, managing director, head of industry analysis and strategic consulting at reinsurance brokerage Howden Re, said the company expects non-traditional lines to surpass the broader property and casualty insurance market by 2030 and will pay close attention to changes in reinsurance demand.
In a recent video interview with Reinsurance News, Flandro said there are several areas expected to grow faster than P&C growth given the current economic climate, including cyber, renewable energy and especially data centers.
He added: “Additionally, we know empirically from reports that property and casualty insurance premium growth exceeds GDP growth, or at least it has for the past 10 years. So if our GDP growth changes as the global trading environment changes, I think that could bode well for property and casualty insurance demand, even in a relatively soft pricing cycle.”
Flandro explained that reinsurance renewals on January 1, 2026 show a shift in the supply curve, while the demand side remains unchanged.
“It’s going to be very interesting to see what happens to demand when you mention networking, renewables, data centers, all those things. We’re going to be watching that very closely,” he said.
During the interview, Flandreau also discussed macroeconomic and geopolitical trends and how these trends impact risk pricing.
He said that since 2022, the environment has fundamentally changed from a long period of low inflation and low interest rates to higher interest rates, higher yields and higher asset prices, which has had a variety of impacts on reinsurers/insurers.
“One is on the asset side of the balance sheet, having sustained yields. But the other, very important, is on the pricing and underwriting side of the balance sheet,” Flandro said.
He pointed out that, at least for now, pricing in multiple lines of insurance, including property catastrophe reinsurance, specialty lines and cyber insurance, is already past its peak. The focus has shifted to how much rates might fall and where they might stabilize.
“Now, we did say in the report that if the current situation persists, we expect price trends to include that, but what people really want to think about now is what’s going to happen in one, three and five years so they can plan, in our view, the world has clearly become a more dangerous place,” Flandro said.
Watch the full video interview to hear Flandro discuss these topics and other trends changing the re/insurance market.
