Marsh’s latest Global Insurance Market Index (GIMI) shows that global commercial insurance rates will fall by an average of 5% in the first quarter of 2026, following a 4% decline in the fourth quarter of 2025. This is the seventh consecutive quarter of rate cuts.
Rate declines in the first quarter were once again driven by ample capacity across most major product lines and fierce insurer competition, according to the index.
Marsh reported that all global regions experienced year-on-year declines in combined growth in the first quarter of 2026, with the Pacific and India, Middle East and Africa (IMEA) experiencing the largest declines, at 12% and 10% respectively.
Rates also fell by 8% in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and the UK, by 6% in Canada, and by 5% each in Europe and Asia.
In the United States, overall composite interest rates were flat in the fourth quarter of 2025 and fell by 1% in the first quarter of 2026.
Elsewhere in the report, Marsh revealed that global property prices fell by 9% in the first quarter of 2026, repeating a trend seen in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The company added: “Five regions saw double-digit declines: PAC (14%), LAC (12%) and 10% in the US, UK and IMEA. Declines were also recorded in Europe (8%), Canada (6%) and Asia (5%).”
Meanwhile, global casualty rates rose by 3% in the first quarter of 2026, down from a 4% increase in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Marsh said the increase was driven by a second consecutive 9% increase in the US, with ongoing claims severity continuing to push rates higher.
However, casualty rates declined in all other regions during the first quarter of 2026, especially for companies with no U.S. operations.
Meanwhile, global financial and professional line rates fell 5% in the first quarter of this year, down from a 4% decline in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Marsh added: “All regions saw interest rate cuts, with an 8% cut in the UK, a 7% cut in the Pacific and Asia and a 2% cut in the US.”
Finally, global cyber insurance rates fell 5% in the first quarter of 2026, following a 7% decline in the fourth quarter of 2025. IMEA had the largest decline, at 14%, followed by Latin America and the Caribbean (11%) and the United States (2%).
John Donnelly, president of global operations at Marsh Risk, commented on the report: “While the potential impact of conflict in the Middle East on the insurance market is being carefully watched, the current competitive environment is expected to persist as insurer profitability remains strong.
“This is particularly true in sectors such as real estate, which are supported by favorable reinsurance terms and significant capacity.
“Given widespread economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures, clients have the opportunity to optimize their plan structure, increase limits or adjust reservations to increase plan resiliency in the year ahead.”
