Verisk, a global provider of data analytics and technology for the insurance industry, estimates that winter storm ferns will cost the insurance industry $4 billion in property and auto damage, primarily caused by freezing effects, with additional damage from wind and snow.
Early results from Verisk’s updated U.S. winter storm model indicate that 14 states from Texas to Massachusetts could each experience insured losses exceeding $50 million.
However, the company explained that damage estimates are somewhat complicated due to the varying regional impacts of the storm and ongoing power outages across the Interior Southeast.
The company warned that if the estimates hold, Fern would be the third costliest winter storm on record in the United States, behind Winter Storm Elliott (2022) and Winter Storm Uri (2021).
This preliminary analysis was conducted by Verisk’s Disaster and Risk Solutions team, which explained that Fern brought freezing rain, heavy snow, and severe thunderstorms between January 23 and 26, affecting the Midwest, Northeast, South, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic.
Velisk noted that freezing rain caused widespread power outages in Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia. The heaviest ice, up to an inch thick, was reported from eastern Texas to northern Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and Kentucky, raising the possibility of burst pipes.
In addition, heavy snowfall also occurred in New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Illinois and Ohio, with up to a foot of snow accumulation in many areas, and cold temperatures hindered repair efforts.
Meanwhile, southern Alabama and southern Georgia experienced severe thunderstorms that produced wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, small hail and several tornadoes.
Velisk explained that the fern’s unusual intensity is driven by the collision of warm, moist subtropical air with extremely cold arctic air.
The event was modeled using the updated Verisk US Winter Storm Model, scheduled for release in June 2026.
More recently, catastrophe risk modeling firm Karen Clark and Company (KCC) estimated privately insured losses from Fern to be $6.7 billion.
Additionally, Aon recently estimated that the resulting insured and economic losses could exceed $1 billion, while BMS expects insured losses to be in the hundreds of millions of dollars.
