JP Morgan, a financial institution that analyzes the insurance industry, described the upcoming phase in Europe’s property and casualty landscape as one dominated by softening property catastrophe reinsurance rates and a broader loss of pricing attractiveness across key lines.
Strong rate success in recent years has now given way to a period when pricing is no longer a tailwind, with most property and casualty reinsurers dealing with a slowing revenue environment through 2026, JPMorgan said.
While some companies may rely on accumulated reserve strength to offset some of the pressure, JPMorgan stressed that further expansion of margins will be challenging.
According to JPMorgan Chase’s assessment, property catastrophe reinsurance pricing will fall significantly in 2026, with a decline of around 10-12% considered completely reasonable.
Sufficient capital entering the market and limited industry losses from the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season support this expectation. JPMorgan also stressed that strict terms, conditions and stable points of attachment should provide an important balance to support underlying profitability even as headline rates fall.
The company further noted that commercial insurance has clearly entered a soft phase after more than five years of steady growth. Data such as the Marsh Index have documented several consecutive quarters of modest declines in global prices, reinforcing the bank’s view that house prices are likely to see mid-single-digit declines in 2026, largely driven by the property business. JP Morgan noted that the United States remains the backbone of global business markets and is showing similar momentum.
Professional lines are also being adjusted. JPMorgan highlighted that Lloyd’s carriers had reported modest declines, but that there were differences between categories.
For example, cyber insurance continues to record lower prices despite claims activity. JPMorgan expects U.S. network pricing to stabilize at levels more consistent with current loss activity through 2026, while the overall professional business will experience modest weakness similar to 2025.
