Tatiana Grineva, director of insurance ratings at Standard & Poor’s, said momentum for emerging market insurers in Europe, the Middle East and Africa will continue, although geopolitics and trade tensions remain key risks to these credit conditions.
Grineva highlighted the industry’s remarkable staying power during S&P’s EMEA Emerging Markets Insurers Credit Outlook 2026 event.
The EMEA emerging market landscape – Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), South Africa and Turkey – varies widely, including in its size, insurance market penetration and maturity.
These regions are characterized by ongoing structural transformation as well as growth potential. In contrast, Western Europe is a mature market facing fierce competition and thin margins.
At the same time, frontier economies such as the Middle East, North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia present a different dynamic: they are more volatile but have higher profit potential but lower market penetration.
For 2026, S&P expects geopolitical instability and trade tariff shocks to remain key “downside risks” to credit conditions and insurance across all emerging markets in the EMEA region in 2026.
Grineva warned that these factors could trigger prolonged volatility in financial markets, potentially weakening sovereign credit and affecting insurance portfolios.
However, Grineva said the credit impact of this risk on the insurance industry has so far been limited.
“We forecast that insurance creditworthiness in emerging markets across Europe, the Middle East and Africa will remain resilient in 2026, driven by the solid standalone characteristics of individually rated insurance and ample capital buffers,” Grineva said.
S&P kept most of its outlook for the region stable, with some entities turning positive, a shift largely driven by improvements in sovereign credit ratings.
S&P believes that most emerging markets in the Europe, Middle East and Africa region are currently well-positioned, with real GDP growth expected to be roughly in line with last year.
The credit rating agency also expects these markets’ economic growth prospects and earnings potential to remain solid.
“All in all, we are consciously optimistic about the outlook for insurers in the emerging EMEA region. This is underpinned by solid growth and earnings potential, tempered by rising geopolitical risks and trade tariffs,” Grineva emphasized.
