While the 2025 North Atlantic hurricane season looks relatively benign, a record share of hurricanes reaching Category 5 levels is a warning that the industry may face superstorms more frequently in a warming world.
Commenting on the official end of this year’s hurricane season, Sam Phibbs, director of disaster research at MS Amlin, noted that the total number of named storms and hurricanes were both below forecasts and long-term averages. However, he said 2025 will be remembered for unprecedented high-intensity storms.
“This season, the proportion of storms reaching Category 5, which is wind speeds exceeding 157 mph, is also very high. A staggering 60% of hurricanes reached the highest category, which is the highest proportion on record. This is consistent with predictions that climate change is driving more storms to reach extreme intensity, which could have devastating consequences if they make landfall,” Phibbs said.
He commented on Hurricane Melissa, which struck Jamaica with devastating force: “Sustained winds reached 185 miles per hour, making it the joint second-strongest hurricane on record.
“Melissa is not an anomaly, but a warning of the kind of superstorms we may encounter more frequently in a warming world. Its rapid intensification—wind speeds doubled from 68 mph to 139 mph in a single day—illustrate how ocean warming is exacerbating hurricane intensity in the Atlantic basin. This trend is deeply concerning, especially because rapid intensification remains difficult to predict, leaving communities with less time to prepare or evacuate.
“There are good reasons for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions to strengthen building codes and bring standards in line with those in hurricane-prone states like Florida and Louisiana. Without these measures, protection gaps will widen, leaving more people vulnerable to the catastrophic impacts of these storms. This season is one of the most obvious for the risks we face right now,” Phibbs emphasized.
Although no hurricanes have made landfall in the United States this year, Ms. Amlin’s research shows that insured losses from hurricanes in the United States could increase by nearly 50% under a scenario of 2°C of global warming.
In this scenario, Category 4 and 5 hurricanes with winds exceeding 130 mph could become more frequent and maintain intensity farther north, threatening cities along the Upper East Coast—areas that have historically been less exposed and less prepared due to warming ocean temperatures.
The survey results also show that Florida is expected to have the largest absolute increase, with insured losses increasing by 44%. Insured losses in New York state could increase by 64%, while average annual losses in Rhode Island and Massachusetts could increase by more than 70%. In major storm years, losses in the Carolinas could increase by 60 percent, three times the increase predicted in Texas.
Additionally, if a hurricane season occurs again in 2022, causing losses of $62 billion, insured losses could exceed $90 billion in a warming climate.
