The latest assessment by international insurance group MAPFRE Economics points to a more favorable environment for global insurance companies.
MAPRE noted that stable economic conditions, improving financing in key markets and a benign inflationary backdrop are laying the foundation for continued expansion across the industry.
According to its new forecasts, life insurance activity is expected to grow by 6.2% in 2025 and 6.5% in 2026, while non-life insurance activity is expected to grow by 5.4% next year and 5.6% the year after. The group stressed that the industry continues to adapt effectively to geopolitical pressures and changing macroeconomic signals, with overall activity revised up slightly compared to previous expectations.
These conclusions accompany a broader update on the global economic situation. MAPFRE Economics raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2025 to 3.1%, two-tenths higher than its previous forecast, while maintaining its 3% growth forecast for 2026.
The organization’s new report, Economic and Industry Outlook 2025: Fourth Quarter Update, A report released by the MAPFRE Foundation maintained its global inflation forecast for next year at 3.4%, falling to 3% in 2026. The study noted that uncertainty in the international environment has declined significantly in recent months, helping to stabilize the near-term outlook.
The baseline view still reflects a phase of slowing economic momentum and weakening price pressures. The impact of tariffs is expected to be limited through 2025, with a stronger impact expected in 2026. MAPFRE Economics noted in the report that “the growth trajectory remains solid, once again surpassing the risk outlook that had threatened a sharp economic slowdown and demonstrating that flexibility and adaptability are two defining characteristics of the current cycle.”
In the United States, growth expectations for 2025 increased slightly to 1.8%, unchanged from the forecast for 2026, when inflation was 3% and 2.6% respectively. The outlook for the Eurozone has also strengthened, with economic growth now set at 1.3% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026, while inflation is expected to be 2.1% and 1.8%.
Latin America is expected to grow by 2.1% next year and 2% in 2026, with average inflation rates of 8.8% and 8.1%. Emerging markets are expected to grow overall at 3.7% and 3.4% this year and 3.4% next year, with inflation rates at 4.1% and 3.8% respectively. The Asia-Pacific region is expected to achieve 4.7% growth this year and 4.3% growth in 2026. China is expected to grow 4.6% in 2025 and 4.2% the year after that. Inflation is 0% this year and 0.8% next year.
Improving global conditions, coupled with easing price pressures and more favorable financial conditions, suggest insurers may find support for continued growth in both life and non-life insurance.
A more stable economic backdrop typically encourages higher demand for protection and savings products, while moderate inflation allows carriers to plan with more confidence, strengthening industry prospects as 2025 approaches.