Reinsurance broker Guy Carpenter’s January 2026 renewal report shows global prices in the marine, energy and technology sectors all falling as new and existing capacity continues to diversify away from real estate and into already crowded specialty markets.
In specialty lines on January 1, 2026, rates for reinsurance renewals for businesses not affected by losses went from flat to -15%, while in some cases rates for accounts affected by losses ranged from -5% to +15%.
Guy Carpenter noted that price has become a key differentiator for this renewal, while previous renewals focused on wording and coverage improvements.
Consistency of contract wording among reinsurer groups has been a top priority for buyers, with little acceptance of differential terms and subjectivity.
“Structural changes vary by business line,” the broker said. “A common theme is that buyers want to cede less quota share and use increased capital from recent profitable years to modify XoL structures and optimize reinsurance spend.
“Buyers continue to tap into alternative capacity, a trend since the last renewal, with an increasing number of buyers choosing to transfer risk to sidecars and similar arrangements, putting further supply and demand pressure on traditional reinsurance.
“Retro customers who renewed on January 1 will want to extend their coverage through the first quarter of 2026, when their underlying portfolios will have greater clarity.”
Guy Carpenter added that credit renewals slowed further, driven by strong profitability and a growing supply and demand excess. On a risk-adjusted basis, prices range from -10% to -15%.
The reinsurance broker explained that renewals were being completed later than last year, with the quoting process lengthened and reinsurers scrambling to find the right pricing levels.
Guy Carpenter said: “There have been some across-the-board changes to terms and conditions, with cedants increasingly seeking larger limits and longer terms to enhance their operational autonomy. While the offer market struggles to maintain its current position, buyers are confidently pushing for improvements in terms.”
More clients are also adjusting their reinsurance structures to better support development portfolios, the broker added.
In aerospace, pricing is essentially flat at -5% at renewal on January 1, 2026, unless projects are impacted by significant losses.
Guy Carpenter said that despite some huge losses in the airline industry, there was still plenty of capacity, although demand for quota shares was tighter than demand for XoL.
“By mid-December, more than 75% of aerospace projects have been placed on the market, with the remainder having been quoted. The aerospace front is typically late; this trend continues with renewals on January 1, 2026. There are few changes to the terms and conditions or structure of projects, but larger buyers retain more risk; often as part of their reinsurance programmes,” said Guy Carpenter.