Independent professional services consultancy Barnett Waddingham (BW) has released the results of its 2026 survey of all 11 active large annuity insurers, indicating that despite acquisition volume reaching new highs, the overall pipeline of plans awaiting completion is still expanding.
Barnett Waddingham reports that almost 160 defined benefit (DB) pension schemes have completed the transition from buy-in to buy-out in 2025, an increase of approximately 30% compared with 2024.
That number could rise to around 300 by 2026, according to insurance company forecasts cited by Barnett Waddingham. However, with buying activity expected to exceed 400 trades in the same period, Barnett Waddingham said the number of outstanding schemes could exceed 800.
Figures published by Barnett Waddingham show that the time it takes for many schemes to switch from buying to buying out continues to increase. Just over half of the schemes trading in 2021 have completed acquisitions, meaning a large proportion will be in transition for at least four years.
Barnett Waddingham also found that about half of the plans for 2022 deals are completed within three years. This timeframe is increasingly seen as a benchmark across the market and is consistent with models cited by the pensions regulator.
For recent deals, completion rates are significantly lower. Barnett Waddingham reports that 28% of planned 2023 deals have reached a buyout so far, while that number will drop to 9% for 2024 deals.
Despite the wider trend towards longer timelines, Barnett Waddingham highlighted evidence that faster progress is achievable. Its findings show that nearly 20% of acquisitions planned to complete in 2023 and 2024 have completed acquisitions within one to two years, reflecting the impact of strong preparation, especially in terms of data quality and benefit preparation.
Barnett Waddingham points to a similar pattern within its own client portfolio. About a quarter of the schemes it manages have completed acquisitions between 2023 and 2024. For early-stage deals, Barnett Waddingham reports that all plans for its recommended 2021 deals have reached buyouts, compared with 54% of the market as a whole.
Beth Allison, head of post-trade and liquidation at Barnett Waddingham, commented: “Our survey highlights that while well-prepared plans can complete acquisitions in two years, it is increasingly common for plans to take three to four years from buy-to-acquire. This is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, as reflected in the projected growth in the acquisition cohort to 2026.
“While insurer capacity continues to expand and more schemes are addressing key data challenges such as pre-deal GMP equalization, these changes will take time to work their way through the channel. These changes are also likely to be offset by the growing number of smaller schemes expected to buy in over the next few years, each requiring similar levels of fixed resources.
“One thing is clear, the programs that progress the fastest are those that are well prepared, with robust data and benefit cleanup plans and rigorous project management. In a market with increasing competition for capacity, expert support is critical to maintaining momentum and achieving smooth, timely acquisitions and liquidations.”