Guy Carpenter, brokerage arm of Marsh Re, reported that reinsurance renewals in Asia and India continued to be weak on April 1, 2026, as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could lead to significant losses in various specialty businesses.
The reinsurance broker highlighted significant price declines in key 1.4 renewal regions in Asia and India, much of which was driven by macro trends of increased capital leading to overcapacity in the market.
In Japan, Asia’s largest region (updated April 1), Guy Carpenter reported double-digit declines in property catastrophe and property rates per risk, while softer trends also continued in casualty and specialty lines. Importantly, terms, conditions and structures are stable, with many renewals being completed a week ahead of schedule.
Elsewhere in Asia, such as Indonesia, South Korea, the Philippines and Singapore, Guy Carpenter also observed further softening in the market, with double-digit rate reductions for loss-free cat business, while terms and conditions in these countries also remained broadly stable.
Tony Gallagher, CEO Asia Pacific, said: “The Asian reinsurance market is demonstrating strong capabilities and competitive pricing, particularly in Japan and surrounding regions. Despite geopolitical uncertainty, reinsurers are keen to support clients with innovative solutions to ensure stability and continuity in a rapidly evolving environment.”
In addition to approximately $1 billion of Asian reinsurance premiums renewed on April 1, 100% of the Indian treaty will also be renewed in April. Here, Guy Carpenter has witnessed a buyer-friendly and competitive renewal season, underpinned by good loss experience and strong local capability. Highlighting how competitive the Indian market is, Guy Carpenter said prices for no-loss excess loss business have fallen by more than 20%, while pricing for liability and specialty lines, including cyber, remains competitive.
Atish Suri, CEO, India, Middle East and Africa, said: “Reinsurers in India and the Middle East remain firmly committed to maintaining coverage despite the complexities caused by the ongoing conflict. Our focus remains on protecting the interests of our clients and ensuring that renewals are not subject to significant commercial constraints, reflecting the resilience and adaptability of the market.”
April 1 marks the first renewal season of the year since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, and according to Guy Carpenter, specialty line renewals in March and April were dictated by the war, with a particular emphasis on maintaining coverage for branch points that are exposed or at risk.
Guy Carpenter said: “As the conflict in the Middle East continues, Treaty Reinsurers have moved quickly to assess potential risks. Given the scale of the conflict, potential losses from political violence, maritime and air routes could be significant. Continuity of underwriting remains vital, without preventing customers from renewing their policies or accepting language excluding conflict in contract clauses.”
In addition to an overview of the April 1 renewal season, Guy Carpenter reported today that catastrophe insured losses in the first quarter of 2026 are estimated at $13 billion, more than 50% below the five-year inflation-adjusted average. Reinsurers still account for a smaller share of global catastrophe losses, which are increasingly exposed to so-called secondary hazards such as severe convective storms, floods and wildfires due to higher project attachment points and fewer catastrophe events, according to the broker.