Reinsurance broker Guy Carpenter’s Global Property Catastrophe Online (ROL) Index fell 12% at renewal on January 1, 2026, with each risk allocation flat to down 15%, depending on region.
Guy Carpenter said in his January 1, 2026 reinsurance renewal report that reinsurers continue to benefit from high attachment points, which is reflected in their lower proportion of catastrophe losses. This, coupled with ample production capacity, is driving competitive pricing conditions and global catastrophic ROL fell by double digits.
The US real estate catastrophe ROL index fell 12%, as North American cedants actively selected prices and continued to diversify their reinsurance business. The savings from core placement are used to enhance the risk transfer program with additional coverage.
The European Real Estate Disaster ROL Index fell by 15%. Market breadth has also shrunk significantly in the region, with clients favoring smaller reinsurers and taking a more selective approach to the price discovery stage.
In Asia Pacific, no-loss catastrophe excess of losses (XoL) plans saw double-digit declines in rates, with reinsurers showing flexibility to meet client pricing expectations to secure share.
On January 1, 2026, Guy Carpenter stated that retention rates have remained broadly stable, with modest increases in demand leading to greater restrictions.
“Some buyers are looking to use expected savings on ancillary purchases to take advantage of favorable market conditions to protect underwriting income,” the broker said.
“In North America, new supplemental coverages have been added, such as potential catastrophe coverage, total XoL and subsequent event coverage.
“Despite very low levels of market demand beyond 2023, demand for appropriately structured aggregate or frequency protection is increasing in Europe. Numerous clients are also exploring the return of premium protection. In the Middle East and Africa, structures remain largely unchanged, with cedants seeking greater underwriting capacity.”
Guy Carpenter added that buyers are looking for an additional 5-10% limit, with about half of demand going to traditional capacity and the remainder to aggregate products, disaster quota shares or alternative solutions.
In addition, the reinsurer’s underwriting capacity readily meets the buyer’s limit requirements. Overcapacity remains an important factor, with preliminary estimates of 1/1 exceeding 25%.
The broker also reported an easing of terms and conditions, noting: “Clients are seeing increased concurrency on contract coverage in most regions. In the United States, most non-concurrency introduced in the 2023 hard market has been eliminated.
“Turns to Europe, there is some evidence of softening of terms during this renewal period. In the hard market on January 1, 2023, we observed a 55% year-over-year increase in the number of unique entities in real estate contracts. Beginning on January 1, 2025, clients have pushed back to full-market concurrent coverage, taking unique entities down 25% from the 2024 peak.”