U.S. pension risk transfer (PRT) activity surged in the fourth quarter of 2025, with global re/insurance brokerage group Aon expecting total market premiums to reach $45 to $50 billion this year.
According to Aon’s U.S. PRT annual report preview, the company expects to settle more premiums in Q4’25 than in the previous three quarters combined, driven by competitive pricing and growing buying interest.
Aon’s full-year forecast is in line with Legal & General Retirement America’s (LGRA) forecast of $45 to $50 billion in premiums. LGRA also expects Q4’25 to be one of the largest quarters to date, with an estimated $29 billion, setting the stage for Q2’25 to be one of the largest quarters on record.
The report noted that a reduction in large transactions at the start of the year allowed insurers to focus resources on smaller transactions. The entry of new insurance companies into the market in 2025 increases the number of bidders. These dynamics have created extremely competitive pricing, with more retirees receiving pensions priced below PBO than in the past.
Aon said pension risk transferred through buy-ins will surge by 2025, expected to reach $15 to $20 billion by the end of the year, compared with $3 to $4 billion annually in recent years.
Activity continues to increase as buying offers a way to transfer financial risk in the current attractive pricing environment.
Aon explains: “The buy-in strategy allows plan sponsors to evaluate annuity pricing and test various economic outcomes, most commonly as a precursor to plan termination. The buy-in strategy can also be used as an alternative investment strategy for plan sponsors seeking to reduce risk.
“More insurers will develop buy-in solutions in 2025, with about half of the U.S. PRT market now able to participate in buy-in. All large market insurers now have buy-in contracts, and there are more options for small and mid-market transactions.”
Aon also provided a litigation update: “Litigation alleging breach of fiduciary duty in the selection of specific insurance companies in PRT transactions has been ongoing over the past two years. As of December 2025, there have been lawsuits filed against 10 plan sponsors and trustees. Half of those cases were decided on motions to dismiss that had been filed, with more requests granted than denied. Plan sponsors are seeking appeals of cases in which motions to dismiss were denied. We continue to monitor the progress of these cases in the courts.”