Acrisure Re, the reinsurance arm of global fintech company Acrisure, has forecast slightly below-average activity in the upcoming 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, but CEO Simon Hedley stressed that the industry cannot afford to be complacent and that preparedness and rigorous risk management remain vital.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season was considered a slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season, producing four major hurricanes, including three Category 5 hurricanes and the devastating impact of Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica.
Meanwhile, Acrisure Re reports that early indicators suggest activity in the upcoming 2026 season may be slightly below average.
While North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST) are not expected to reach the record-breaking levels observed in recent years, they remain above the long-term average across much of the basin, particularly in the western Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico.
Meanwhile, forecasters expect the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to develop into an El Niño at the peak of hurricane season, with multiple models indicating the potential for a strong El Niño. These conditions typically increase upper-level wind shear across the Atlantic basin, creating a less favorable environment for hurricane development.
The combination of above-average Atlantic sea temperatures, projected El Niño conditions, and other changing atmospheric and oceanic factors points to an overall slightly below-average hurricane season.
Despite the seasonal outlook, Acrisure Re chief executive Simon Hedley stressed that hurricane forecasts remain inherently uncertain and a wide range of potential outcomes are still possible.
“While we expect this year’s season to be milder than in recent years, the industry cannot afford to be complacent,” Headley said. “The lessons of recent hurricane seasons continue to reinforce that whenever a major storm makes landfall in a densely populated area, it can cause significant human and economic losses. Preparedness and rigorous risk management remain critical.”
Acrisure Re’s internal forecast model currently predicts about 13 named storms during the 2026 season, compared with the long-term average of 14.
“Intraseasonal variability and short-term atmospheric patterns will continue to influence when and where storms occur throughout the season,” said Ming Li, global director of cat models at Acrisure Re. “While overall activity may trend closer to average, rising ocean temperatures in key areas mean the potential for rapid intensification and impactful landfall remains a significant concern.”